Limit: 10,131,959

Inaccuracy: 89.41%

### assumptions

Modelling the spread of Covid 19 with the help of the logistic function. These assumptions have been made:

- Dealing with the infection data as if they were continuous variables. In reality they are discrete variables
- The time derivative of total infected cases depends only on already infected people and susceptible people
- Factors like social distancing und seasonality will not be put exclusively into consideration. That all will be included in the constant k
- Total deaths is assumed to be probational to infection cases and going to be used in its place because it can be determined more accurately
- Inaccuracy respecting to fitting the curve is measured with this function: sqrt(sum((y2 – y1)^2 )/n )/mean(y1). Whereas y2 are the points from the model, y1 are the points from the historical data and n it the total number of the points
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