Limit: 11,432,133

Inaccuracy: 43.64%


Modelling the spread of Covid 19 with the help of the logistic function. These assumptions have been made:

  1. Dealing with the infection data as if they were continuous variables. In reality they are discrete variables
  2. The time derivative of total infected cases depends only on already infected people and susceptible people
  3. Factors like social distancing und seasonality will not be put exclusively into consideration. That all will be included in the constant k
  4. Total deaths is assumed to be probational to infection cases and going to be used in its place because it can be determined more accurately
  5. Inaccuracy respecting to fitting the curve is measured with this function: sqrt(sum((y2 – y1)^2 )/n )/mean(y1). Whereas y2 are the points from the model, y1 are the points from the historical data and n it the total number of the points
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