Total cases 258,322,802
Total duration 913 days
Max. active cases 8,443,517 in one day
Peak 11-03-2020
Infection case factor 6.86
Herd immunity 22.76 %
Total Deaths 6,705,112
Fatality infection rate 0.38 %
Reproduction factor R 6.20, 3.89, 2.57, 2.06, 1.31, 1.26, 0.83, 2.93, 3.24, 3.35, 3.02, 2.52, 1.96, 0.11, 1.05, 0.09, 0.91, 0.96, 0.93, 0.91, 0.88, 0.09, 1.06, 1.05, 1.17, 1.07, 1.01, 1.05, 1.14, 1.17, 1.20, 1.11, 1.07, 1.03, 1.06, 0.95, 0.99, 1.04, 1.14, 1.00, 1.06, 1.03, 1.17, 1.04, 1.02, 1.17, 1.16, 0.12, 1.35, 1.29, 1.22, 1.17, 1.18, 1.12, 1.12, 1.13, 0.97, 1.44, 1.45, 0.99 (last 3 results may be inaccurate)
Reproduction factor R (altenrative way) 3.05, 1.98, 1.40, 1.31, 1.09, 1.00, 0.90, 1.17, 1.61, 1.68, 1.55, 1.41, 1.24, 1.08, 1.01, 0.97, 0.94, 0.96, 0.95, 0.96, 0.95, 0.98, 1.00, 1.00, 1.02, 1.01, 0.98, 1.00, 1.02, 1.05, 1.08, 1.02, 0.99, 1.01, 1.00, 0.98, 0.95, 0.99, 1.00, 1.00, 0.95, 1.00, 1.02, 1.00, 0.98, 1.01, 1.05, 1.07, 1.06, 1.05, 1.04, 1.03, 1.03, 1.01, 1.01, 1.02, 0.97, 1.08, 1.07, 0.98 (last 3 results may be inaccurate)
R for forecast 1.07

Assumptions

Modelling the spread of Covid 19 with the help of the SIR-Model. These assumptions have been made:

  1. Dealing with the infection data as if they were continuous variables. In reality they are discrete variables
  2. Based on SIR-Model
  3. Cases are modeled based on rise in death
  4. Blogs in Arabic:
    science wonders
    Facebook