Total cases 81,226,085
Total duration 913 days
Max. active cases 4,944,329 in one day
Peak 20-10-2020
Infection case factor 39.24
Herd immunity 40.97 %
Total Deaths 4,143,407
Fatality infection rate 0.13 %
Reproduction factor R 6.20, 3.89, 2.57, 2.06, 1.31, 1.26, 0.83, 2.97, 3.25, 3.34, 3.03, 0.19, 1.95, 1.41, 1.04, 0.90, 0.92, 0.99, 0.87, 0.82, 0.09, 1.02, 1.08, 1.08, 1.21, 1.10, 1.04, 1.08, 1.18, 1.22, 1.25, 1.16, 1.10, 1.31, 2.02, 1.75 (last 3 results may be inaccurate)
Reproduction factor R (altenrative way) 3.05, 1.98, 1.40, 1.31, 1.09, 1.00, 0.90, 1.17, 1.61, 1.68, 1.55, 1.42, 1.23, 1.08, 1.02, 0.97, 0.93, 0.96, 0.96, 0.96, 0.95, 0.99, 1.00, 1.00, 1.02, 1.01, 0.98, 1.00, 1.02, 1.05, 1.07, 1.02, 0.99, 1.05, 1.24, 1.15 (last 3 results may be inaccurate)
R for forecast 1.18

Assumptions

Modelling the spread of Covid 19 with the help of the SIR-Model. These assumptions have been made:

  1. Dealing with the infection data as if they were continuous variables. In reality they are discrete variables
  2. Based on SIR-Model
  3. Cases are modeled based on rise in death
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