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\u0627\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0646 \u0633\u0631\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0628\u0642\u0649 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629. \u0641\u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0645\u062b\u0644\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e \u061f\u0648\u0647\u0644 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u0641 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u062a\u0627\u0621\u061f<br \/>\n3 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u063a\u0641\u0644 \u0627\u0649 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639 \u0644\u0644\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636. \u0643\u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u062c\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062d\u064a \u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0630\u0644\u0643.<br \/>\n4 \u0627\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0641\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0647\u0649 \u0627\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0641\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u0633\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0635\u0644\u0629. \u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0645\u0636\u0649 \u0648\u0623\u0642\u0648\u0649<br \/>\n5 \u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u062e\u0631\u0649<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6587\" style=\"width: 460px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/sir.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6587\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6587\" alt=\"SIR\" src=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/sir.png\" width=\"450\" height=\"321\" srcset=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/sir.png 450w, http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/sir-300x214.png 300w, http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/sir-420x300.png 420w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-6587\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SIR<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u0631\u0649 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f \u064a\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0646 \u064a\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u064a\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 . \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c SIR \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629:<\/p>\n<p>S \u0645\u0646 Suceptible \u0648\u062a\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u0649<br \/>\nI \u0645\u0646 Infected \u0648\u062a\u0639\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a<br \/>\nR \u0645\u0646 Recovered \u0648\u062a\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646\u00a0 \u062a\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627 \u0645\u0631\u062d\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636<\/p>\n<p>\u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062a\u0631\u0641\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0631\u0633\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u0627. \u0648\u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062a\u0641\u0631\u064a\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062a\u0639\u062f\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u062e\u0635\u0635\u0627 \u0648\u062a\u0639\u0642\u064a\u062f\u0627. \u0644\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633 \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u0649 \u064a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0641\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0648\u0645<\/p>\n<p>\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0646\u0648\u0632\u0639 \u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b \u0634\u0631\u0627\u0626\u062d. \u0648\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u0630\u0643\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0647\u0645 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0627. \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u0636\u064a\u062d\u0647\u0645 \u0643\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0649:<\/p>\n<p>1 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u0649 \u0648\u0642\u062f \u064a\u0635\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u0648\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0642\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u064a<br \/>\n2 \u0633\u0631\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u0636\u0647\u0645 \u0647\u0649 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0626\u0627\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062e\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u062a\u0632\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0632\u0627\u062f \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u064a\u0631\u0648\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a. \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629<br \/>\nS&#8217; = -alpha * S * I<br \/>\n\u062d\u064a\u062b S&#8217; \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u0649 \u0641\u0649 \u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648 alpha \u0647\u0648 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0648 S \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u0649 \u0648 I \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u062d\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u064a\u0631\u0648\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0629 \u062a\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0627\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u062d\u0627\u0621 \u062f\u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u0649 \u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635<br \/>\n3 \u064a\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0627\u0648 \u064a\u0645\u0648\u062a\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0631\u0648\u0631 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0648\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 R \u0627\u0644\u0644\u062a\u0649 \u0642\u062f \u062a\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u064a\u0646 Recovered \u0627\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629\u00a0 Removed \u0641\u0644\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0642\u0636\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u064a\u0631\u0648\u0633 \u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u062f\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0627\u0632\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627 \u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0648\u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u062f\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0646\u062d\u0633\u0628\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635\u0648\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636<br \/>\n4 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u064a\u0628\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647\u0645 \u0648\u0646\u0631\u0645\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629<br \/>\nR&#8217;= beta * I<br \/>\n\u062d\u064a\u062b \u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a<br \/>\n5 \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0647\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u062a\u0649 \u064a\u062a\u062f\u0641\u0642 \u0639\u0628\u0631 \u062c\u0627\u0646\u0628\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0631\u062a\u064a\u0646. \u0641\u0647\u0649 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u062c\u0645\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u062d\u0627\u0621 \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0627 \u0648\u062a\u0641\u0642\u062f \u0639\u0646\u0627\u0635\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0631\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0644\u0635\u0627\u0644\u062d \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u064a\u0646. \u0648\u064a\u0646\u0628\u0637\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062a\u064a\u0629<br \/>\nI&#8217; = alpha * S * I -beta *I<br \/>\n6 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0627\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a S \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u064a\u0646 R \u0628\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 I<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0630\u0646 \u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u0631\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629:<br \/>\nS&#8217;=-alpha * S * I<br \/>\nI&#8217;=alpha * S *I &#8211; beta * I<br \/>\nR&#8217; = beta * I<\/p>\n<p>\u0646\u0631\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627. \u0641\u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0631\u064a \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0642\u064a\u0645\u062a\u0647\u0645\u0627. \u0644\u0646\u0628\u062f\u0623 \u0627\u0648\u0644\u0627 \u0628\u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0647\u0644. \u0644\u0648 \u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0648\u0641\u064a\u062f 19 \u0647\u0649 \u0627\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u0634\u0631 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637. \u0627\u0630\u0646 \u0641\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u0642\u0633\u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 14. \u0644\u0646\u0648\u0636\u062d \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0644\u0648 \u0623\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645 28 \u0634\u062e\u0635\u0627 \u0628\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636. \u0641\u0628\u0639\u062f 14 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0633\u064a\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u0648\u0646 \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645\u0627. \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u0639 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0641\u0649 \u0642\u0641\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0643\u0645\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629. \u0628\u0644 \u0646\u0641\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0628\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0629\u00a0 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629 -1\/14\u0645\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u064a. \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0643\u0644 \u064a\u0648\u0645 \u064a\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u0649 \u0634\u062e\u0635\u0627\u0646 . \u0641\u064a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0628\u0639\u062f \u064a\u0648\u0645 \u0647\u0646\u0627 26 \u0645\u0631\u064a\u0636\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u064a\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0646 24 \u0645\u0631\u064a\u0636\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u0634\u0631 \u0645\u0631\u064a\u0636\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0646 \u0635\u0641\u0631\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u064a. \u0623\u0630\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627 \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0628\u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u0633\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0641\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629<br \/>\nBeta = 1\/ Recovery time<\/p>\n<p>\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u061f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0627\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u0639\u0642\u064a\u062f\u0627. \u0648\u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0633\u0627\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0647\u0627 \u0647\u0646\u0627. \u0648\u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0627\u062a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0639\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642\u0627. \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0634\u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u062e\u0636\u0639 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629.<br \/>\nI(t)=I(0)*e^(alpha * N*t)<br \/>\n\u062d\u064a\u062b\u00a0 N \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639 . \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u064a\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062b\u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u0637\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627. \u0648\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627 \u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0648\u0636\u062d\u00a0 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a:<br \/>\n\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u064a\u0646 \u0635\u0641\u0631\u0627<br \/>\n\u0648\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a\u0646<br \/>\n\u0648\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0646\u062a\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a.<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0646\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u0627\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0627\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0635\u0641\u0631\u0627 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627 \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0635\u0641\u0631<br \/>\n\u0648\u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0628\u0642\u0649<br \/>\nI&#8217; = alpha *S *I<br \/>\n\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639 N \u0641\u0627\u0646\u0647\u0645 \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0648\u0632\u0639\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0634\u0631\u064a\u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u0641\u0642\u0637. \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627<br \/>\nI&#8217; = alpha*(N-I)*I<br \/>\n\u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0647\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0648\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0631\u0623\u064a\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629.<br \/>\n\u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0646\u062c\u0631\u064a \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0627 \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0627 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0646\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644\u0627 \u0628\u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 N-I \u064a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0627 N \u0641\u0644\u0648 \u0637\u0631\u062d\u0646\u0627 10 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0627\u0626\u0629 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u062a\u0628\u0642\u0649 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627 \u0645\u0627\u0626\u0629 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0646. \u0648\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627<br \/>\nI&#8217;= alpha *N\u00a0 *I<br \/>\n\u0627\u0648\u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0648N \u0647\u0645\u0627 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0637\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0627 \u0645\u0639 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0634\u0631\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0646\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u0647\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u0649 \u0646\u0633\u0639\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0647<\/p>\n<p>\u0627\u0630\u0646 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0646\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u062b\u0648\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627 \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629\u061f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062d\u0644 \u0635\u0631\u064a\u062d. \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0623\u0644\u0629. \u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u0647\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0648\u0627\u0628\u0633\u0637\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0647\u0649 \u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0628\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0631<\/p>\n<p>\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u0628\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u0649 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0636\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 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\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0624\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0649 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629\u00a0 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623\u061f \u0648\u0647\u0644 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0639\u0627\u064a\u0634 \u0645\u0639\u0647 \u0627\u0648 \u0644\u0627\u061f \u0648\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u0646\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0641\u0639\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0627 \u062f\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0627 \u0635\u0627\u0631\u0645\u0627 . \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0639\u0646 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0644\u062a\u0641\u0634\u0649 \u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0648 \u0646\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646\u0629. \u0648\u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0641\u0649 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0646 \u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645. \u0641\u0627\u0646\u0646\u064a \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0627\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0649 1440 \u0642\u0633\u0645\u0627 \u0648\u0647\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0641\u064a\u0647 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u0649 \u0643\u0644 \u062f\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629. \u0637\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u062c\u0631\u0649 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u0627 \u0648\u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u062d\u062a\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u062c\u0647\u0627\u0632 \u0643\u0645\u0628\u064a\u0648\u062a\u0631 \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0639\u0632\u0627\u0624\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u0642\u0644\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0623 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0629<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6600\" style=\"width: 1493px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6600\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6600\" alt=\"\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0643\u0648\u0641\u064a\u062f \" src=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r3.png\" width=\"1483\" height=\"819\" srcset=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r3.png 1483w, http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r3-300x165.png 300w, http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r3-1024x565.png 1024w, http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r3-500x276.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1483px) 100vw, 1483px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-6600\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0643\u0648\u0641\u064a\u062f<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0631\u0649 \u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u0627 \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0627. \u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636\u0646\u0627 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0642\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0648 \u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0635\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0634\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0634\u062e\u0635\u0627. \u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0645\u0627\u0626\u0629 \u0634\u062e\u0635\u0627 \u0627\u0635\u064a\u0628\u0648\u0627 \u0628\u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0643\u0648\u0641\u064a\u062f 19 . \u0648\u0644\u0646\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0646 \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0641\u0649 \u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0647\u0649 \u0627\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u0634\u0631 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0633\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627 \u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0642\u0633\u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 14 . \u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0641\u0644\u0646\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u062d\u062f\u062f\u0646\u0627 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0628 0.0000214 \u0627\u0630\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0643\u0633\u0644 Excel \u0627\u0648 \u0627\u064a \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c \u0627\u062e\u0631 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646 \u0644\u0647 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u0637\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0646 \u0646\u062c\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629<br \/>\nR=0<br \/>\nI=100<br \/>\nS=9900<br \/>\n\u062b\u0645 \u0646\u0643\u0631\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u062a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 I \u0635\u0641\u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u064a\u0632\u064a\u062f \u062b\u0645 \u064a\u0646\u062d\u0633\u0631<br \/>\nS =S -alpha *S*I \/1440<br \/>\nI = I + alpha * S*I \/1440 &#8211; beta *I\/1440<br \/>\nR = R +beta * I\/1440<br \/>\n\u0648\u0628\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0646\u0627 \u0633\u0646\u062c\u062f \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621 \u0633\u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0641 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0646 \u064a\u0635\u0627\u0628 \u0628\u0647 94% \u0645\u0646 \u0643\u0644 \u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 184 \u064a\u0648\u0645 \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0635\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0641\u0627\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0633\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0639\u062f 37 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u0627 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 31% \u0645\u0646 \u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0629 \u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u064a\u0648\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f.<\/p>\n<p>\u0648\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0639\u062f\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u0631\u064a \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u0636 \u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u0649 \u0648\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0639\u064a\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0637\u0639\u0646\u0627 \u062a\u062e\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0636 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u062b\u0644\u062b\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0641\u0633\u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0646 \u064a\u0635\u0627\u0628 \u0628\u0647 80% \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u0647 253 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u0627. \u0627\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0641\u0627\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 16.5% \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0631\u0648\u0631 60 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u0627. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0647\u0627\u0645\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u0627. \u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u062e\u0641\u0636\u0646\u0627 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u062a \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u0641\u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u062a \u0642\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0635\u0641 \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u0627. \u0648\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0647\u0649 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0637\u0644\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0633\u0637\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062d\u0646\u0649 \u0627\u0648 Flatten the curve<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6607\" style=\"width: 1493px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r_2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6607\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6607\" alt=\"\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636 \" src=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r_2.png\" width=\"1483\" height=\"828\" srcset=\"http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r_2.png 1483w, http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r_2-300x167.png 300w, http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r_2-1024x571.png 1024w, http:\/\/eltawil.org\/sciencewonders\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/r_2-500x279.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1483px) 100vw, 1483px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-6607\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0646 \u0631\u0623\u064a\u0646\u0627 \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u062a\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629. \u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u062a\u0623\u0645\u0644 \u0628\u0634\u064a\u0626 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u0639\u0646 \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0635\u064a\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0641\u064a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u062a\u0649 \u062a\u062d\u0645\u0644\u0647\u0627. \u0631\u0628\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646\u00a0 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0624\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0627\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0648\u0637\u00a0 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u062a\u0649 \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0641\u0631\u0639\u0646\u062f\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621\u061f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d\u0629 \u0637\u0628\u0639\u0627 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0631. \u062d\u064a\u062b \u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0635. \u0627\u0630\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0646\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646:<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;=alpha * S * I &#8211; beta * I &gt; 0<br \/>\n\u0648\u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627<br \/>\nalpha * S * I &gt; beta * I<br \/>\n\u0623\u0648<br \/>\nalpha * S \/beta &gt; 1<br \/>\n\u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627 \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0627 R \u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641\u0647 \u0643\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u0649<br \/>\nR = S* alpha\/beta<\/p>\n<p>\u0648\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0641\u0649 \u063a\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0628 Effective Reproduction Number<br \/>\n\u0648\u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0643\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0646\u0627 \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621 \u0648\u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0636\u0649 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0632\u062f\u064a\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0648\u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0635\u063a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u062d\u0633\u0627\u0631 \u0634\u062f\u064a\u062f. \u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u0646\u0627\u0635\u0631 R \u0628\u0634\u064a\u0626 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u062d\u064a\u0635. \u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0635\u0641 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a:<\/p>\n<p>R \u0647\u0649 \u062d\u0627\u0635\u0644 \u0636\u0631\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u062b\u0645 \u0646\u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u064a\u062a\u0627!! \u0645\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u061f \u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0641\u0639\u0644 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062e\u0637\u0648\u0629 \u062e\u0637\u0648\u0629. \u0645\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u061f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0631\u064a\u0641:<br \/>\nS&#8217; = alpha *S*I<br \/>\n\u062f\u0639\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u062a\u062a\u0628\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0631\u064a\u0636 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0641\u0642\u0637. \u0627\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u0648\u0636 \u0641\u0649 I \u0628 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f. \u0627\u0630\u0646<br \/>\nS&#8217; = alpha *S<br \/>\n\u0623\u0648<br \/>\nalpha = S&#8217;\/S<br \/>\n\u0627\u0648 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0647\u0649 \u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0642\u0633\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0645\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u0641\u0649 \u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0633\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0645\u0631\u064a\u0636 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f. \u0627\u0648 \u0628\u0635\u064a\u0627\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0647\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0634\u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u062a\u0645\u062a \u0627\u0635\u0627\u0628\u062a\u0647\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u0641\u0649 \u064a\u0648\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0634\u062e\u0635 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0642\u0633\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a.<\/p>\n<p>\u0631\u0628\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0634\u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0645\u0631\u0627 \u0645\u062d\u064a\u0631\u0627 \u0648\u0633\u062e\u064a\u0641\u0627. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0644\u0627 \u0628\u0623\u0633. \u0641\u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0641\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0646\u0636\u0631\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627 \u0641\u0649 S 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